Thursday, October 1, 2020

Thousands May Have Caught Virus: Leading Medical Centres Estimate Infection Rate Is Much Higher Than Stated

 

By RASHAD ROLLE
Tribune Senior Reporter
rrolle@tribunemedia.net

THE true number of COVID-19 cases in the Bahamas is scores higher than the confirmed tally, according to three international research groups that have created separate epidemiological models of the virus.

One group estimated that on a single day in August when the country confirmed only double-digit numbers of cases, the actual number of infections was 14 times higher.

The models of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the Imperial College London (ICL) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) offer different estimates but reach the same conclusion: the number of COVID-19 cases far exceeds the confirmed number of cases.

The research groups have been influential to how policymakers have responded to the pandemic around the world. Their models consider confirmed cases, confirmed deaths and testing rates and they reflect a range of assumptions and epidemiological knowledge of researchers.

The models were collated by Our World In Data, a scientific online publication.  Read more >>