Thursday, April 9, 2020

Health officials say there could be as many as 90 cases by Sunday, based on one forecast model

By Rachel Knowles

One of the Ministry of Health’s models predicts there will be 90 cases of COVID-19 in the country by Sunday, Dr. Merceline Dahl-Regis, health consultant to the prime minister, said today.

However, she noted that the rate of new infections observed so far has indicated that the model may not be accurate.

“We’re thinking that the model that we were using to forecast the number of cases has changed,” she said during a virtual press conference.

“We’re looking at an exponential regression rather than a linear regression, and based on that forecast, there’s a prediction of almost 90 cases by Easter Sunday, but we’re hoping that the model is not exponential, but as we graphically look at it, we’re a little concerned.  Read more >>